Troubles in Tigray

With Afghanistan dominating the news cycle, allegations of serious ethnic violence continue to emerge from Ethiopia.

The unforeseen and lightening quick collapse of the Afghanistan government along with the global evacuation effort was the foreign affairs story of the summer. Afghanistan, not surprisingly, occupies a certain significance to the general UK audience that dwarfs any considerations relating to Ethiopia, a factor that explains the former’s domination of the news headlines. However, given the looming humanitarian disaster rumoured to be breaking out across Tigray, the conflict in Ethiopia warrants increased media attention.

In April this year, the influential International Development Committee stated that the conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia, represented an early test of the government’s commitment to the principles and approach of the UK as a ‘force for good’ globally[1]. Fast forward five months, and the UK’s inability to help resolve or influence the conflict continues to damage the credibility of the ‘global Britain’ brand. Far from being resolved, this regional conflict between the central administration and the state of Tigray is fast spiralling out of control into a protracted war that threatens to engulf the entirety of Ethiopia.

This week, the Daily Telegraph revealed disturbing reports of ethnic Tigrayans being targeted by a ‘door-to-door’ policy of ethnic cleansing that ‘included throwing men, women and children into makeshift concentration camps, cutting off limbs and dumping mutilated bodies into mass graves’[2]. The Government of Ethiopia adamantly deny such reports, labelling them as ‘false allegations lodged by the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front)’[3]. These claims are difficult to verify; reporting and access to reliable information about the conflict has and continues to be a major issue for western observers. Without accurate information, these latest reports can only be speculated on. If true though, it would signify a worrying escalation in violence beyond the allegations of indiscriminate mass killings that were reported earlier in the year.

The frontiers of the war are also extending. Where it was previously confined to Tigray, the TPLF’s counter offensive in June means that the conflict has now spread into the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. The two-million displaced Tigrayans are now joined by 300,000 people from Afar and Amhara. Starvation too has spread, with the UN now estimating that 5.2 million people require urgent assistance and humanitarian aid[4]. As of the 26 August, 400,000 people were experiencing famine conditions, more than the rest of the world combined[5]; a humanitarian disaster of gravely worrying proportions.

Ethiopia is a multi-ethnic state with a complex and difficult history, and one not immune to past ethnic violence. Nevertheless, it is important not to overstate the ethnic dimension. Long standing constitutional questions over how Ethiopia ought to be governed, either as a unitary state or highly regionalised multi-ethnic federation, have longed unsettled Ethiopia in the post-imperial era, and continue to feature prominently in the existing conflict.

The history of Ethiopia in the modern era is an intricate web of shifting alliances and temporary political settlements. For that reason, it would be inappropriate to pass judgement on the underlying political conflict. The question is whether Ethiopia will be able to avoid defining the war in ethnic terms. The signs, if they are to be currently believed, do not appear promising. Nevertheless, it will be incumbent on both sides to exercise restraint if Ethiopia, and its various constituent ethnic groups, traditions, and religions, are to have a future.

‘Global Britain’ may have gotten off to a bad start in Afghanistan, and although the government has been unable to materially affect events in Ethiopia, whilst there remains an Ethiopia, there remains a potential role for the UK as a positive mediator towards conflict resolution.

[1] https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5801/cmselect/cmintdev/1289/128903.htm

[2] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/09/05/ethiopias-tigrayans-rounded-mutilated-dismembered-civil-war/

[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-ethnic-cleansing-concentration-camps-b1914876.html

[4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-58450223

[5] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/over-400000-people-in-tigray-are-experiencing-famine-conditions-more-than-in-the-rest-of-the-world-combined